Ellis County, Texas Real Estate Market Update - February 2026

Market Report by OnDemand Realty
Your Trusted Partner for Ellis County Home Sales

Executive Summary

The Ellis County real estate market enters February 2026 with balanced conditions, offering opportunities for both buyers and sellers. After years of volatility, the market has stabilized with modest price appreciation, increasing inventory, and improved mortgage rates hovering in the low-6% range. This normalized market environment represents a significant shift from the frenzy of 2020-2021 and the stagnation of 2024-2025.

Key Highlights:

• Median List Price: $474,990 (up 4.0% year-over-year)
• Average Price Per Square Foot: $211
• Current Inventory: 1,179 active listings
• Average Days on Market: 111 days
• Mortgage Rates: 5.99%-6.31% for 30-year fixed loans

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Current Market Conditions

Pricing Trends

Ellis County home prices show steady, sustainable growth as we enter 2026:

Overall County Statistics:

• Median Listing Price: $474,990
• Year-Over-Year Change: +4.0%
• Price Per Square Foot: $211 (average)
• Median Sold Price (May 2025 data): $418,000-$426,721

These numbers reflect the market's transition from the dramatic appreciation of the pandemic era (45% surge) to the more moderate, predictable growth patterns experts anticipated for 2026.

Market-Specific Pricing by City

Ellis County comprises several distinct markets, each with unique characteristics:

Midlothian (Premium Market)

• Median Home Price: $448,815-$499,949
• Market Position: Highest-priced city in Ellis County
• Growth Driver: Proximity to DFW, excellent schools, new construction

Waxahachie (County Seat)

• Median Home Price: $354,079-$396,727
• Average Rent (3BR): $1,387
• Days on Market: 65 days average
• Notable Features: Historic downtown, strong community character

Red Oak

• Median Home Price: $341,395-$374,500
• Year-Over-Year Change: -3.7% (October 2025)
• Market Status: More affordable alternative to Midlothian

Ennis

• Median Home Price: $237,971-$244,998
• Market Position: Most affordable major city
• Buyer Profile: First-time buyers, investors

Ovilla

• Median Home Price: $472,207
• Market Character: Smaller community, family-oriented

Inventory Levels

Active Listings: 1,179 properties (as of January 8, 2026)

Inventory has increased meaningfully from the historic lows of 2020-2021, creating a more balanced market. This represents a healthy shift from extreme seller's market conditions to a more neutral environment where both buyers and sellers can achieve their goals.

Inventory by Property Type:

• 2-Bedroom Homes: +10.6% month-over-month
• 3-Bedroom Homes: +6.1% month-over-month
• 4-Bedroom Homes: +8.2% month-over-month
• 5-Bedroom Homes: -2.3% month-over-month

The inventory increase primarily affects move-up properties (3-4 bedrooms), providing more options for growing families and those seeking larger homes.

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Market Timing and Conditions

Days on Market

Average Days on Market: 111 days (January 2026)

This represents a significant shift from the rapid sales of 2021-2022 when properties often sold in days. The current timeline provides:

• More time for buyer due diligence
• Opportunity for professional inspections
• Ability to negotiate terms
• Reduced pressure on all parties

Historical Context:

• May 2025: 99 days on market (down 31.9% from May 2024)
• Ellis County Average: 64-99 days depending on season and location

Market Balance

Current conditions indicate a balanced to slight buyer's market:

Indicators:

• Days on market above 70 days (buyer-friendly)
• Inventory increasing month-over-month
• Price appreciation moderate (4.0% annually)
• Homes selling at or slightly below list price

This balance creates the healthiest negotiating environment in several years, with neither buyers nor sellers holding overwhelming leverage.

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Mortgage Rate Environment

Current Rates (February 2026)

Texas mortgage rates have improved significantly from 2023-2024 peaks:

30-Year Fixed Mortgage:

• Range: 5.99% - 6.31%
• Year-Over-Year Change: Down approximately 0.90 percentage points
• Texas Average: 6.31% (slightly above national 6.22%)

15-Year Fixed Mortgage:

• Range: 5.37% - 5.69%
• Benefit: Lower rate, faster equity building

7-Year ARM:

• Rate: 5.75%
• Best For: Buyers planning to sell or refinance within 7 years

Rate Impact on Affordability

The decline from peak rates near 8% in late 2023 to current levels around 6% has meaningful implications:

Monthly Payment Comparison (on $400,000 loan):

• At 8.0% rate: $2,935/month (principal & interest)
• At 6.5% rate: $2,528/month (principal & interest)
• At 6.0% rate: $2,398/month (principal & interest)
• Savings from peak to current: $537/month or $6,444 annually

Rate Forecast 2026

Expert predictions suggest rates will remain in the 6.0%-6.4% range throughout 2026:

• Fannie Mae: Low-6% range by year-end
• Mortgage Bankers Association: 6.4% average
• National Association of Home Builders: 6.17%
• Consensus: Gradual easing, but no return to sub-4% rates

What This Means: Buyers waiting for rates to drop to 3-4% will likely miss opportunities. The current environment represents improved affordability compared to 2023-2024.

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Ellis County Market Advantages

Why Buyers Choose Ellis County

1. Affordability Advantage

Compared to core Dallas-Fort Worth markets, Ellis County offers significant value:

• Ellis County Average: $474,990
• Dallas County Average: $450,000+ (depending on area)
• Tarrant County Average: $359,000-$400,000+
• Collin County Average: $500,000+

2. Space and Land

Ellis County properties typically offer:

• Larger lot sizes (0.25 - 1+ acre common)
• More square footage per dollar
• Room for pools, workshops, outdoor living
• Privacy and separation from neighbors

3. Quality of Life

• Lower cost of living than urban centers
• Small-town character with big-city access
• Excellent school districts (Midlothian ISD, Waxahachie ISD, Red Oak ISD)
• Growing retail and dining options
• Historic downtowns with community events

4. Strategic Location

• Highway 287: Direct access to Fort Worth and Dallas
• I-35E: North-south corridor to DFW metroplex
• Commute Times: 30-45 minutes to downtown Dallas/Fort Worth
• Future Development: Continued infrastructure investment

Why Sellers Are Optimistic

Positive Market Indicators:

• Steady 4.0% annual appreciation
• Strong buyer demand from DFW relocations
• Multiple offers on well-priced homes
• Improved mortgage rate environment bringing buyers back
• Texas migration trends continuing (25% of US population growth)

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Market Trends by Property Type

Single-Family Homes

Market Share: Dominant property type in Ellis County

Buyer Demand: Strong for:

• 3-4 bedroom homes in established neighborhoods
• New construction in Midlothian and Waxahachie
• Properties with land (1+ acres)
• Updated homes in move-in condition
• Energy-efficient new builds

Pricing Trends:

• 3-Bedroom: +0.4% year-over-year
• 4-Bedroom: +5.5% year-over-year
• 5-Bedroom: +7.3% year-over-year

New Construction

Major Activity Areas:

• Midlothian: Multiple master-planned communities
• Waxahachie: New subdivisions along Highway 287
• Red Oak: Infill development and smaller communities

Popular Builders:

• Sandlin Homes (Oak Creek Ranch)
• Coventry Homes
• Highland Homes
• David Weekley Homes

Buyer Benefits:

• Modern floor plans
• Energy efficiency
• Builder warranties
• Customization options
• Low maintenance

Land and Acreage

Market Activity: Steady demand for:

• 5-10 acre residential tracts
• 20-50 acre ranch properties
• Lot development opportunities
• Agricultural exemption properties

Price Range: $56,331 (small town lots) to $1,662,357 (premium acreage)

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Buyer Market Insights

What Buyers Should Know in February 2026

1. Increased Negotiating Power

With 111 days average market time, buyers can:

• Request seller concessions
• Negotiate repairs
• Ask for closing cost assistance
• Take time for thorough inspections
• Avoid waiving contingencies

2. Rate Lock Strategies

Don't wait for rates to drop further:

• Current rates near 3-year lows
• Expert consensus: rates staying 6.0%-6.4% range
• Can refinance later if rates drop significantly
• Missing out on home appreciation waiting for lower rates

3. Best Value Markets

For First-Time Buyers:

• Ennis ($237,971 median)
• Waxahachie ($354,079 median)
• Red Oak ($341,395 median)

For Move-Up Buyers:

• Midlothian (premium market, excellent schools)
• Ovilla (community atmosphere)
• Waxahachie (historic charm, growing amenities)

4. Competition Levels

• Less competitive than 2021-2022
• Multiple offer situations rare except on exceptional properties
• Time to make informed decisions
• Professional inspections recommended and accepted

Financing Opportunities

Texas First-Time Buyer Programs:

• Homes Sweet Texas: 30-year fixed with up to 5% down payment assistance
• Homes for Texas Heroes: Programs for teachers, veterans, first responders
• FHA Loans: 3.5% down payment option
• Conventional Loans: 5-20% down payment

Down Payment Assistance: Available for qualified buyers in Ellis County. Income limits apply by county. Work with experienced lenders familiar with Texas-specific programs.

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Seller Market Insights

Optimal Selling Strategies for February 2026

1. Pricing Strategy

Competitive Pricing is Critical:

• Overpriced homes sit longer (111-day average already extended)
• Price within 5% of comparable sales
• Account for current market conditions
• Consider recent sold data, not aspirational pricing

Pricing Sweet Spots:

• $250,000-$350,000: High buyer demand
• $350,000-$450,000: Strong market activity
• $450,000-$600,000: Selective buyer pool
• $600,000+: Smaller but qualified buyer segment

2. Home Preparation

Must-Do Items:

• Professional photography
• Pre-listing inspection (identify issues early)
• Declutter and stage
• Address deferred maintenance
• Curb appeal enhancements
• Deep cleaning

High-ROI Improvements:

• Fresh paint (neutral colors)
• Updated fixtures and hardware
• Kitchen and bathroom updates
• Flooring replacement/refinishing
• Landscaping and outdoor living spaces

3. Marketing Timeline

Best Selling Season: February-July traditionally strongest

Marketing Duration:

• Preparation: 2-4 weeks
• Photography: 1 week
• MLS listing: Day 1
• Showings: Begin immediately
• Offers: 2-8 weeks (current market)
• Closing: 30-45 days

4. Competitive Positioning

Stand Out From Competition:

• Professional listing presentation
• Comprehensive online presence
• Virtual tours and 3D walkthroughs
• Highlight unique features
• Emphasize Ellis County lifestyle benefits
• Target DFW relocators

Common Seller Mistakes to Avoid

1. Overpricing: Leads to extended market time, price reductions, stale listing 2. Poor Condition: Deferred maintenance deters buyers 3. Limited Availability: Restrict showing times reduces buyer pool 4. Inflexibility: Unwillingness to negotiate in balanced market 5. DIY Marketing: Professional representation maximizes exposure and price

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Investment Opportunities

Ellis County as Investment Market

Rental Market Dynamics:

Average Rents (3-Bedroom):

• Waxahachie: $1,387/month
• Midlothian: $1,600+/month
• Ennis: $1,176/month
• Red Oak: $1,427/month

Investment Strategies:

1. Buy and Hold

• Strong rental demand from DFW commuters
• Appreciation potential as area develops
• Cash flow opportunities in affordable segments

2. Fix and Flip

• Inventory of older homes needing updates
• Strong buyer demand for renovated properties
• Target $250,000-$350,000 after-repair value

3. New Construction Investment

• Land acquisition for future development
• Spec homes in growing subdivisions
• Long-term appreciation play

4. Short-Term Rentals

• Limited in most areas (check local regulations)
• Potential near tourist attractions
• Consider Waxahachie historic district

Key Investment Metrics

Price-to-Rent Ratios: Generally favorable for investors Vacancy Rates: Low due to DFW job market proximity Property Taxes: Moderate compared to urban counties Appreciation Forecast: 1.8%-4.0% annually (conservative)

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Economic Context and Market Drivers

Texas Economic Strength

Job Growth:

• Texas: 1.3% projected for 2026
• Above national average
• Energy sector and defense spending driving growth

Population Growth:

• 25% of US population growth (past 5 years) to Texas
• Continued in-migration from California, Illinois, New York
• Ellis County capturing spillover from DFW growth

Personal Income:

• Projected 5% annual increase through 2026
• Supporting home affordability
• Wage growth outpacing inflation

Infrastructure Development

Major Projects Impacting Ellis County:

Transportation:

• Highway 287 improvements
• I-35E corridor enhancements
• Future transit options under consideration

Commercial Development:

• Retail expansion in Waxahachie and Midlothian
• Industrial facilities in Ennis
• Healthcare facility expansion

Education:

• School district facility upgrades
• New campuses to accommodate growth

Impact on Home Values: Infrastructure improvements historically drive 3-5 year value appreciation. Properties within 2 miles of major improvements see strongest gains.

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School District Overview

Top-Rated Districts in Ellis County

Midlothian ISD

• Rating: Above Average
• Notable: Midlothian Heritage High School (highly rated)
• Enrollment: Growing rapidly
• New Construction: Multiple communities feed into MISD

Waxahachie ISD

• Rating: Good
• Notable: Waxahachie Global High School, historic district schools
• Community: Strong parent involvement
• Athletics: Competitive programs

Red Oak ISD

• Rating: Average to Good
• Enrollment: Mid-sized district
• Focus: Community-centered education

Impact on Home Values: School quality directly correlates with property values. Homes in top-rated districts command 10-15% premiums.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is February a good time to buy a home in Ellis County?

Yes, February 2026 represents an excellent buying opportunity in Ellis County. Mortgage rates have improved to near 3-year lows (around 6%), inventory has increased providing more choices, and sellers are more willing to negotiate than in recent years. While spring typically brings more competition, early February buyers can secure properties before seasonal demand peaks.

What is the average home price in Ellis County Texas?

The median home listing price in Ellis County is $474,990 as of February 2026, representing a 4.0% year-over-year increase. Prices vary significantly by city, with Midlothian averaging $448,815-$499,949, Waxahachie at $354,079-$396,727, and Ennis offering more affordable options at $237,971-$244,998.

Are Ellis County home prices going up or down in 2026?

Ellis County home prices are experiencing modest appreciation of approximately 4.0% annually in early 2026. This represents healthy, sustainable growth compared to the dramatic appreciation of 2020-2021. Experts forecast continued stability with 1.8%-4.0% appreciation throughout 2026, avoiding both price crashes and unsustainable surges.

What are current mortgage rates in Texas?

As of February 2026, Texas mortgage rates range from 5.99% to 6.31% for 30-year fixed loans and 5.37% to 5.69% for 15-year fixed mortgages. These rates represent significant improvement from the 8% peaks of late 2023 and are expected to remain in the 6.0%-6.4% range throughout 2026 according to major industry forecasters.

How long do homes stay on the market in Ellis County?

The average days on market in Ellis County is currently 111 days as of January 2026. This varies by price point and condition, with well-priced, updated homes in desirable areas selling faster (30-60 days) while properties needing work or priced above market may take 90-150+ days.

What cities in Ellis County are growing the fastest?

Midlothian and Waxahachie are experiencing the most significant growth in Ellis County, driven by new residential construction, commercial development, and proximity to the DFW metroplex. Both cities are seeing master-planned community development, retail expansion, and infrastructure investment that attracts families and businesses.

Is Ellis County a good place to invest in real estate?

Ellis County offers strong investment potential due to its affordable pricing relative to core DFW markets, steady population growth, and improving infrastructure. Rental demand remains healthy with average 3-bedroom rents ranging from $1,176 to $1,600+ monthly. The market's stability and moderate appreciation (4% annually) make it attractive for long-term investors.

What is the property tax rate in Ellis County?

Property tax rates in Ellis County vary by jurisdiction but typically range from 2.0% to 2.5% of assessed value annually. Rates depend on your specific location, school district, and municipal tax authorities. Texas has no state income tax, but property taxes fund local services and schools. Homestead exemptions can reduce tax burden for primary residences.

How far is Ellis County from Dallas and Fort Worth?

Ellis County cities are approximately 30-45 minutes from downtown Dallas and Fort Worth via Highway 287 and I-35E. Waxahachie is about 30 miles south of Dallas, Midlothian is 25 miles southwest, and Red Oak is 20 miles south. Commute times vary by destination and traffic conditions, but most major DFW employment centers are accessible within an hour.

What amenities are available in Ellis County?

Ellis County offers growing retail and dining options, historic downtown districts (particularly Waxahachie), recreational facilities, parks, sports complexes, and cultural attractions. While more limited than urban areas, major shopping centers, grocery stores, restaurants, and services are available in Waxahachie, Midlothian, and Red Oak. Residents enjoy small-town atmosphere with easy access to DFW amenities.

Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before buying?

Industry experts predict mortgage rates will likely remain in the 6.0%-6.4% range throughout 2026, with minimal chance of returning to the sub-4% rates of 2020-2021. Waiting for lower rates means missing current opportunities while home prices continue appreciating 4% annually. Buyers can always refinance if rates drop significantly, but cannot recapture lost appreciation or the home that sold while waiting.

What are the best neighborhoods in Ellis County for families?

Top family-friendly areas include Midlothian (excellent schools, new construction, amenities), Waxahachie (historic charm, strong community, quality schools), and Ovilla (small-town character, family-oriented). Within these cities, look for neighborhoods with highly-rated schools, parks, low crime, and community events. Midlothian ISD and Waxahachie ISD consistently receive strong marks from families.

How competitive is the Ellis County real estate market?

The Ellis County market is currently balanced to slightly buyer-friendly, representing a significant shift from the extreme seller's market of 2021-2022. Multiple offer situations are less common, buyers have time for thorough inspections, and negotiation opportunities exist. While well-priced properties still attract strong interest, the pressure and competition have normalized considerably.

What home features are buyers looking for in Ellis County?

Ellis County buyers prioritize land (0.5+ acres), open floor plans, modern kitchens, energy efficiency, outdoor living spaces, and updated bathrooms. Master bedroom on main level appeals to aging population. Three-car garages, workshop space, and room for RV/boat storage are common requests. Proximity to Highway 287 or I-35E for commuting is important for many buyers.

Can I find new construction homes in Ellis County?

Yes, Ellis County has active new construction markets, particularly in Midlothian and Waxahachie. Major builders including Sandlin Homes, Coventry Homes, Highland Homes, and David Weekley Homes are developing communities. New construction offers modern floor plans, energy efficiency, builder warranties, and customization options. Prices range from mid-$300,000s to $600,000+ depending on size and features.

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OnDemand Realty: Your Ellis County Experts

Why Choose OnDemand Realty for Your Ellis County Transaction

At OnDemand Realty, we specialize in connecting buyers and sellers throughout the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, with particular expertise in emerging markets like Ellis County. Our comprehensive understanding of local market dynamics, combined with cutting-edge technology and personalized service, positions us as your ideal partner for real estate success.

Our Ellis County Services

For Buyers:

• Exclusive access to MLS listings updated in real-time
• Market analysis and neighborhood comparisons
• New construction guidance and builder negotiations
• Lender connections through Clarity Home Lending
• Virtual tours and in-person showings
• Expert negotiation to secure best price and terms
• Transaction coordination from contract to closing

For Sellers:

• Comprehensive market analysis and pricing strategy
• Professional photography and marketing
• Multi-platform exposure (MLS, Zillow, Realtor.com, social media)
• Staging consultation
• Negotiation expertise
• Mobile closing capabilities
• Post-sale support

For Investors:

• Investment property analysis
• Rental market data and projections
• Property management referrals
• 1031 exchange coordination
• Portfolio growth strategies

Specialized Relocation Services

Military Family Support: We proudly serve military families relocating to nearby Fort Worth installations, offering:

• Airport pickup and area orientation
• Temporary housing assistance
• School district guidance
• Base commute analysis
• VA loan expertise

Corporate Relocations:

• Employer relocation program coordination
• Neighborhood tours and lifestyle matching
• Spouse employment resources
• Community integration support

Contact OnDemand Realty

Ready to Buy or Sell in Ellis County?

📞 Phone: Contact us today
🌐 Website: ondemanddfw.com
📧 Email: Connect with our Ellis County specialists

Mortgage Services:
Partner with Clarity Home Lending for competitive rates and expert loan guidance tailored to your Ellis County purchase.

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Market Outlook: What to Expect in 2026

Short-Term Forecast (Next 3-6 Months)

Spring Market (March-June):

• Increased buyer activity as weather improves
• More inventory hitting market
• Continued balanced conditions
• Mortgage rates stable 6.0%-6.4%
• Modest price appreciation continuing

Summer Market (July-September):

• Peak inventory levels
• Buyer demand moderating slightly
• Back-to-school timing impacts
• Opportunity for negotiation on longer-listed properties

Long-Term Outlook (12-24 Months)

Market Fundamentals:

• Continued DFW population growth driving demand
• Infrastructure investments enhancing area appeal
• Gradual home price appreciation (3-5% annually)
• Mortgage rates likely staying elevated compared to 2020-2021
• Inventory normalizing to pre-pandemic levels

Ellis County Advantages:

• Affordability relative to core metro areas
• Land availability for development
• Quality of life factors attracting families
• Strategic positioning for continued growth

Expert Consensus

Leading real estate economists agree that 2026 represents a "normalization" year - not the frenzy of 2021, not the stagnation of 2024-2025, but a healthy, sustainable market where:

• Buyers have choices and negotiating power
• Sellers can achieve reasonable appreciation
• Transactions proceed with proper due diligence
• Market fundamentals drive activity, not speculation

Bottom Line: This is one of the healthiest, most balanced markets in years for both buyers and sellers in Ellis County.

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Conclusion: Strategic Timing for Ellis County Real Estate

February 2026 presents unique opportunities in the Ellis County real estate market. With improved mortgage rates near 3-year lows, increasing inventory providing choices, and balanced market conditions enabling negotiation, both buyers and sellers can achieve their goals with proper strategy and expert guidance.

The market has moved past the uncertainty of recent years into a period of stability and predictability. Home prices are appreciating at sustainable rates, buyer demand remains healthy, and the fundamental drivers - DFW growth, Texas migration, and infrastructure development - continue supporting long-term value.

Whether you're a first-time buyer seeking affordability, a growing family needing more space, a seller capitalizing on appreciation, or an investor building wealth, Ellis County offers compelling opportunities. The key is working with knowledgeable professionals who understand local market nuances and can position you for success.

Don't wait for "perfect" market conditions that may never materialize. Current market dynamics - improved rates, balanced inventory, sustainable pricing - create an environment conducive to smart real estate decisions.

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OnDemand Realty - Your Partner in Ellis County Real Estate
Serving the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex with Expertise, Technology, and Personalized Service

📞 Contact us today to discuss your Ellis County real estate goals
🌐 Visit ondemanddfw.com for market updates and listings
💡 Connect with Clarity Home Lending for mortgage pre-approval

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This market report was prepared by OnDemand Realty in February 2026. Data sources include Redfin, Zillow, Rocket Homes, NTREIS MLS, Texas A&M Real Estate Center, Bankrate, and other industry authorities. Market conditions change rapidly; contact OnDemand Realty for the most current information specific to your situation.