Denton, Texas Real Estate Market Update: October 2026
Mortgage rates have been high all fall. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average reached 7.40% on October 8, 2026, the seventh weekly increase in a row and the highest level since November 2023. It held at 7.40% on October 15, then dipped to 7.32% on October 22. A year ago it averaged 6.19%.
Denton's prices have held up through it. According to the latest North Texas MLS data from NTREIS and Texas A&M, the median single-family sale price in Denton was $381,990 in September 2026, essentially flat (+0.3%) from $381,000 a year earlier. Over the same period, the Denton County median fell 4%.
What has changed is the pace. Sales slipped, homes took 12 days longer to sell, and inventory grew to 4.8 months. Denton is a stable-price, slower-moving market where buyers have room to negotiate and sellers need to price carefully.
This update covers what the September numbers show, how Denton compares with Denton County and nearby cities like Corinth, Lewisville, and Little Elm, what today's rates mean for your monthly payment, the city's data-center debate, and what buyers and sellers should do this fall.
Key Takeaways
- The median sale price held at $381,990 for single-family homes in September 2026, up 0.3% from a year ago (NTREIS/TAMU). Price per square foot rose 0.8% to $190.52.
- Denton is outperforming its county. The Denton County median fell 4% to $420,990, so the city is now about $39,000 cheaper than the county and holding value better.
- Homes are taking longer to sell. The median home spent 69 days on market, up from 57. Closed sales fell 7.6% to 122.
- Inventory is building. Active listings rose 6.6% to 616, and months of inventory rose from 4.4 to 4.8, above Denton County (4.5) and DFW (4.3).
- Buyers are negotiating. The median home sold for 94.3% of list price, roughly $21,800 below asking on a $381,990 home.
- Pending sales fell 9% (109 vs. 120), a sign that October's higher rates are slowing new contracts.
- Rates eased slightly. The 30-year fixed was 7.32% on October 22, down from 7.40% the two weeks before.
- Watch the data-center debate. The City Council tightened data-center rules on October 13 and is considering a moratorium, with the earliest vote on December 1.
What the September 2026 Numbers Show
Our main source is the NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report for September 2026, prepared by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M and released in early October. It's based on closed MLS sales, which makes it the most direct measure of what Denton homes actually sold for. Builder-direct and other non-MLS sales are not included.
Denton Single-Family Homes: September 2026 vs. September 2025
| Metric | Sept. 2026 | Sept. 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $381,990 | $381,000 | +0.3% |
| Average sale price | $418,773 | $393,191 | +6.5% |
| Closed sales | 122 | 132 | −7.6% |
| Median days on market | 69 | 57 | +12 days |
| Active listings | 616 | 578 | +6.6% |
| Months of inventory | 4.8 | 4.4 | +0.4 |
| Median price per sq. ft. | $190.52 | $189.09 | +0.8% |
| Sold-to-list price ratio | 94.3% | 94.3% | Flat |
| New listings | 176 | 172 | +2.3% |
| Pending sales | 109 | 120 | −9.2% |
Source: NTREIS/Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, September 2026 MLS Summary Report. Year-over-year changes are our calculations from the report's side-by-side figures.
Steady values, slower pace
Denton's numbers tell a consistent story:
- Values are flat. The median (+0.3%) and price per square foot (+0.8%) barely moved. With 122 sales, Denton has a larger sample than most suburbs, so these numbers are fairly reliable.
- The average rose faster (+6.5%) because more higher-priced homes closed this September. That's a mix effect, not a broad gain in values.
- Demand slowed. Fewer closings, fewer pendings, and longer market times all point to buyers being more cautious at 7%+ rates.
Our read: Denton homes are holding their value, but they're taking longer to sell. Sellers who price right still sell; sellers who overprice sit.
What other data sources show
| Source | Measure | Figure | Year-over-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTREIS/TAMU (Sept. 2026) | Median sale price, single-family | $381,990 | +0.3% |
| Redfin (3 months ending Sept.) | Median sale price | $383,317 | −0.69% |
| Realtor.com (Oct. 2026) | Median list price | $380,000 | +0.16% |
| Zillow ZHVI (Sept. 30, 2026) | Typical home value (estimate) | $343,177 | −3.1% |
| Redfin, Denton County (3 months) | Median sale price | $419,062 | −3.7% |
A few notes on reading this table:
- Redfin's three-month median ($383,317) is almost identical to the MLS figure. Redfin also reports $191 per sq. ft. (+2.4%), a 67-day median market time, about 2 offers per home on average, and about 459 homes sold over three months (+9.0%).
- Realtor.com's median list price ($380,000) is right in line with sale prices. Unlike many suburbs, Denton sellers aren't asking far above what buyers are paying.
- Zillow's ZHVI is an estimated value for a typical home across the whole city, not an actual sale price, which is why it runs lower.
- Community Impact, citing MetroTex data, also reported that Denton's September median sale price and number of homes on the market rose year over year.
All the sources agree: Denton prices are basically flat, and the market is slower than a year ago.
Inventory, Days on Market & Buyer Leverage
Inventory is rising
Active single-family listings rose from 578 to 616, and months of inventory increased from 4.4 to 4.8. About 6 months is considered balanced, so Denton is moving toward balance, and it now has more inventory than Denton County (4.5) or DFW (4.3).
Homes are taking longer to sell
The median home took 69 days to sell in September, compared with 57 a year ago. Redfin's three-month median is 67 days. Buyers have time to compare homes, get inspections, and negotiate.
Buyers are getting below-list prices
At a 94.3% sold-to-list ratio, the typical Denton home sold about 5.7% below its final list price. On a $381,990 home, that's roughly $21,800. The ratio was the same a year ago, so negotiating room hasn't grown, but it hasn't shrunk either.
Watch pending sales
Pending sales fell 9% to 109. Pending sales lead closings by 30 to 45 days, and with rates at 7.40% for much of October, we expect October and November closings to stay soft.
How competitive is Denton right now?
One quick way to gauge demand is pending sales divided by active listings. The NTREIS report ranks 89 DFW cities this way:
| City | Pending ÷ Active ("Hotness") | Rank of 89 |
|---|---|---|
| Crowley | 30.8% | #7 |
| Allen | 20.2% | #43 |
| Denton | 17.7% | #57 |
| Waxahachie | 17.5% | #58 |
| Forney | 11.7% | #81 |
Denton sits in the bottom half for competitiveness: demand is steady, but buyers aren't rushing.
Denton vs. Denton County, DFW & Neighboring Cities
| Area | Median Sale Price | Sept. 2025 Median | Sales | Months of Inventory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denton | $381,990 | $381,000 | 122 | 4.8 |
| Lewisville | $380,000 | — | 48 | 3.0 |
| Little Elm | $390,000 | $419,995 | 44 | 4.9 |
| Corinth | $402,500 | $417,000 | 21 | 4.3 |
| Sanger | $315,225 | $273,000 | 14 | 5.9 |
| Flower Mound | $638,000 | — | 58 | 3.2 |
| Argyle | $665,000 | $588,000 | 11 | 8.2 |
| Denton County | $420,990 (−4%) | — | 1,050 | 4.5 |
| DFW (all NTREIS) | $385,000 (−1%) | $390,000 | 6,759 | 4.3 |
Source: NTREIS/Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, September 2026. Corinth, Sanger, and Argyle have small samples.
What the comparison shows
- Denton vs. Lewisville: Nearly identical medians ($381,990 vs. $380,000), but Lewisville is much tighter (3.0 months) and faster (42-day median). Denton offers buyers more choice at the same price.
- Denton vs. Little Elm and Corinth: Both saw their medians fall year over year, while Denton held steady. Little Elm homes took longer to sell (88 days).
- Denton vs. Flower Mound and Argyle: Those medians run about $256,000 to $283,000 higher. Denton remains the affordable entry point into the county.
- Denton vs. the county and DFW: The county median fell 4% on 1,050 sales (down 8%), and DFW's fell 1%. Denton's price stability stands out.
Townhomes and condos in Denton
| Property Type | Sept. 2026 Sales | Median Price | Active Listings | Months of Inventory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Townhouses | 2 | $232,025 | 18 | 9.4 |
| Condos | 0 | — | 7 | 14.0 |
With only two townhouse sales, the median isn't a reliable benchmark. Those two sold at just 89.8% of list after a median of 215 days. With 9.4 to 14 months of inventory, townhome and condo buyers in Denton have strong leverage. Countywide, 33 townhouses sold at a median of $410,000 (−6%) with 5.7 months of inventory.
Denton rentals
Leasing is busy, helped by the city's two universities. In September, 76 Denton homes leased (up from 56) at a median rent of $2,088 (down from $2,173), with a 50-day median and 2.5 months of inventory. Countywide, the median rent was $2,495 (+1%).
The Mortgage Rate Backdrop
| Freddie Mac PMMS Date | 30-Year Fixed | 15-Year Fixed |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 8, 2026 | 7.40% (7th straight weekly rise; highest since Nov. 2023) | — |
| Oct. 15, 2026 | 7.40% | — |
| Oct. 22, 2026 | 7.32% | 6.68% |
| About one year earlier | 6.19% | 5.44% |
What this means for your monthly payment
Using Denton's September median of $381,990 with 20% down (about $76,400), the loan is about $305,600:
| Scenario | Rate | Monthly Principal & Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed, a year ago | 6.19% | ~$1,870 |
| 30-year fixed, Oct. 22, 2026 | 7.32% | ~$2,099 |
| 30-year fixed, Oct. 8, 2026 | 7.40% | ~$2,116 |
| 15-year fixed, Oct. 22, 2026 | 6.68% | ~$2,692 |
Principal and interest only. Property taxes, homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance, and HOA dues are extra and can be significant in Denton County.
At today's rate, the same loan costs about $229 more per month than a year ago. Negotiating seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown can offset much of that, and with Denton homes selling at about 94.3% of list, those asks are realistic.
Local Policy Watch: Denton's Data-Center Rules and Proposed Moratorium
Data centers are the biggest local land-use story in Denton this fall, and they matter to homeowners near industrial zones.
- October 13: The City Council voted unanimously to amend the development code for data centers. New projects now need a specific use permit (SUP) and are allowed only in light industrial, heavy industrial, or public facility zones. They must use closed-loop or free-air cooling and submit water and wastewater demand studies, and the required setback from homes increased from 100 feet to 300 feet (Community Impact).
- October 27: The council held a second public hearing and first reading of a proposed data-center moratorium. Dozens of residents spoke in support. The earliest adoption vote is December 1 (Denton Record-Chronicle).
If you're buying near industrial land in Denton, ask your agent to check zoning and pending applications nearby, and follow the December vote.
Schools & Why Buyers Choose Denton
- Denton ISD earned an overall C (76) in the preliminary 2026 TEA accountability ratings released August 14, 2026. Nearby districts include Argyle ISD (A, 92), Lewisville ISD (B, 83), and Northwest ISD (B, 82). Some Denton-area addresses fall into these other districts, so check the assigned district and campus for any home at TXSchools.gov.
- College town energy. Denton is home to the University of North Texas and Texas Woman's University.
- Historic downtown square with a well-known live-music and arts scene.
- Commuter access. The I-35E/I-35W split, plus DCTA's A-train to Trinity Mills, where it connects to DART.
- Value. Lower entry prices than Frisco, Flower Mound, or Argyle.
What Buyers Should Do Now
- Negotiate. Homes sold for 94.3% of list. Ask for price reductions, closing-cost credits, repairs, or a rate buydown.
- Use the extra inventory. With 616 active listings and 4.8 months of supply, you can compare more homes than a year ago.
- Target listings past 75 days. With a 69-day median, homes sitting longer often have motivated sellers.
- Check the school district carefully. Denton-area addresses can fall into Denton, Argyle, Northwest, Lewisville, or other ISDs.
- Consider townhomes. At 9.4 months of inventory, attached-home buyers have the most leverage.
- Get fully pre-approved and compare lenders. At 7%+ rates, small differences add up.
What Sellers Should Do Now
- Price to the market, not last spring. Denton prices are flat, and homes that start too high tend to sit past the 69-day median.
- Stand out from growing inventory. Active listings are up 6.6%. Presentation, condition, and pricing are what separate homes that sell.
- Offer buyer incentives. A seller-paid rate buydown can lower a buyer's payment more than an equal price cut.
- Market to renters and investors. With 76 leases in September and steady university demand, investor buyers are part of Denton's buyer pool.
- Keep more of your equity. With flat prices, commission costs have a bigger effect on your net. A flat-fee listing can make a real difference (see below).
How OnDemand Realty Helps Denton Buyers and Sellers
Denton's market has many layers: university rentals, multiple school districts, growing inventory, and an active city policy debate. OnDemand Realty's agents work across Denton County and can help you make sense of it.
For buyers, we:
- Pull Denton comps by neighborhood and price per square foot before you make an offer
- Identify listings with long market times and price cuts
- Check zoning, school district boundaries, and nearby development
- Structure offers with closing-cost credits or rate buydowns
For sellers, we:
- Price your home based on current Denton sales
- Offer a flat-fee listing option so you keep more of your equity
- Market your home to buyers and investors across DFW
With offices in Frisco, Plano, Dallas, Fort Worth, and Cedar Hill, OnDemand Realty serves Denton, Denton County, and the rest of the DFW Metroplex.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are home prices falling in Denton, TX? No. The median single-family sale price was $381,990 in September 2026, up 0.3% from a year earlier (NTREIS), and price per square foot rose 0.8%. Redfin's three-month median is down 0.69%. Prices are essentially flat.
Is Denton a buyer's market or a seller's market? It's leaning toward balanced. Denton had 4.8 months of inventory, homes took a median of 69 days to sell, and buyers paid about 94.3% of list. Buyers have room to negotiate.
How long does it take to sell a home in Denton? The median was 69 days in September 2026, up from 57 a year earlier (NTREIS).
How does Denton compare with Denton County? Denton's median ($381,990) is about $39,000 below the county median ($420,990), and it held flat while the county fell 4%.
What are mortgage rates right now? Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.32% and the 15-year was 6.68% as of October 22, 2026.
How much does it cost to rent a house in Denton? The median single-family lease in September 2026 was $2,088 per month, based on 76 leases (NTREIS).
How good are Denton schools? Denton ISD earned an overall C (76) in the preliminary 2026 TEA ratings. Some Denton-area homes are zoned to Argyle ISD (A), Lewisville ISD (B), or Northwest ISD (B).
What is happening with data centers in Denton? The council tightened data-center zoning rules on October 13, 2026, and is considering a moratorium, with the earliest vote on December 1.
Thinking About Buying or Selling in Denton?
Denton's prices are steady, inventory is growing, and buyers have time to negotiate. Sellers who price to today's market are still selling. OnDemand Realty can help you make the right move.
Visit www.ondemanddfw.com or talk with an OnDemand Realty agent serving Denton and the DFW Metroplex.
Related: Allen, Texas Real Estate Market Update: October 2026 · Waxahachie, Texas Market Update: October 2026 · Forney, Texas Market Update: October 2026 · Crowley, Texas Market Update: October 2026 · Aledo, Texas Market Update: October 2026
This article is general information, not legal or financial advice. Market data changes frequently and varies by source, property type, and neighborhood. Payment examples are estimates for illustration only. Talk with a qualified lender about financing, and with a real estate professional about your specific situation.
Sources
- NTREIS / Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center – Monthly MLS Summary Report, September 2026: https://www.mymetrotex.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NTREIS-Monthly-MLS-Summary-Report-202609.pdf
- Freddie Mac – Mortgage Rates Decrease to 7.32% (Oct. 22, 2026): https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-decrease-732/
- Freddie Mac – Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS): https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
- Redfin – Denton, TX Housing Market: https://www.redfin.com/city/5145/TX/Denton/housing-market
- Redfin – Denton County Housing Market: https://www.redfin.com/county/2700/TX/Denton-County/housing-market
- Realtor.com – Denton, TX Housing Market: https://www.realtor.com/local/market/texas/denton-county/denton
- Zillow – Denton, TX Home Values: https://www.zillow.com/home-values/4351/denton-tx/
- Community Impact – Denton September real estate data (Oct. 16, 2026): https://communityimpact.com/denton/real-estate/115-homes-sold-see-denton-s-september-real-estate-data/
- Community Impact – Denton passes development code updates for data centers (Oct. 21, 2026): https://communityimpact.com/denton/government/denton-officials-pass-development-code-updates-for-data-centers/
- Denton Record-Chronicle – Data center moratorium enters next phase: https://dentonrc.com/news/denton/denton-s-data-center-moratorium-enters-next-phase-before-possible-early-december-adoption/article_ab799b44-21bc-4654-9857-e7fec57d1b0b.html
- Denton City Council meeting record, Oct. 27, 2026: https://mytexasrecord.org/denton/meetings/2026-10-27-city-council-october-27-2026-e69c82b5-25d8-44f9-96b7-ed62cea205cf
- CNAT Title – 2026 Texas school ratings compilation: https://cnattitle.com/resources/school-ratings/
- TXSchools.gov (TEA): https://txschools.gov
Categories
Recent Posts
